Modelling Hospital Patient Flow: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Modelling patient flow in health care systems is considered vital in understanding the system's activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. A measure, extensively used, is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, assumes normally distributed data thus making the subsequent modelling of resources totally unsuitable. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate, hence the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service. Running Title: Modelling Patient Flow through Hospitals